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Abstract
Shifts in marine species distributions are occurring rapidly in response to climate change, yet predicted rates of change are partly dependent on the data used to estimate species distributions. While pelagic fishes are known to respond to dynamic oceanographic variables, static topographic features can also regulate their distributions, yet the effect of topography on rates of range shifts remains poorly understood. For a suite of five pelagic fishes from an ocean warming hotspot, we developed generalized additive mixed models that did and did not incorporate preferences for seascape topographic heterogeneity when estimating species distributions. Monthly spatial predictions over two decades revealed that poleward extensions in species' core environmental habitats were significantly reduced by 5.3–60.4% (7.1–131.4 km per decade) when preferences for seascape topography were incorporated. These findings suggest that ignoring species associations with static environmental features can substantially affect predicted rates of climate-driven redistributions in fishes.
Details
Title
Letter: Seascape topography slows predicted range shifts in fish under climate change
Creators
Curtis Champion - NSW Department of Primary Industries
Melinda A Coleman - NSW Department of Primary Industries
Publication Details
Limnology and Oceanography Letters, Vol.6(3), pp.143-153
Publisher
John Wiley & Sons, Inc
Number of pages
11
Grant note
This research is part of the NSW Primary Industries Climate Change Research Strategy, funded by the Climate Change Fund.