Using expert elicitation to identify effective combinations of management actions for koala conservation in different regional landscapes

Emma B. Camus; Jonathan R. Rhodes; Clive A. McAlpine; Daniel Lunney; John Callaghan; Ross Goldingay; Angie Brace; Murray Hall; Scott Benitez Hetherington; Marama Hopkins; Marek J. Druzdzel; Helen J. Mayfield

doi:10.1071/WR22038

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Using expert elicitation to identify effective combinations of management actions for koala conservation in different regional landscapes

Journal article

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Using expert elicitation to identify effective combinations of management actions for koala conservation in different regional landscapes

Emma B. Camus, Jonathan R. Rhodes, Clive A. McAlpine, Daniel Lunney, John Callaghan, Ross Goldingay, Angie Brace, Murray Hall, Scott Benitez Hetherington, Marama Hopkins, …

Wildlife research (East Melbourne), pp.1-15

21/07/2022

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1071/WR22038

Appears in Recent Faculty of Science and Engineering Publications

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Abstract

Ecology

Environmental Sciences & Ecology

Life Sciences & Biomedicine

Science & Technology

Zoology

adaptive management

Bayesian network

expert elicitation

habitat restoration

koala conservation

roadkill

targeted management

threatened species recovery

wild dogs

Context. Choosing the most effective combinations of actions to manage threatened species is difficult. Aims. This study aimed to identify the most effective combinations of six management actions for reversing population declines of koala populations in three regional landscapes (Coastal, Riverine and Hinterland) in north-east New South Wales, Australia, based on expert-elicited knowledge. Methods. A Bayesian network was used to combine continuous probability distributions representing the impact of specific management actions and combinations of actions. Data were derived from expert elicitation. Variation within and among expert judgements was captured by incorporating submodels of individual responses. Weevaluated alternative management solutions to address four mortality factors (disease and injury, vehicle strikes, domestic dogs and wild dogs/dingoes (Canis familiaris), and two habitat-related management actions (restoration and protection). Key results. We show that there are marked differences in the expected response of the koala populations to the various management options in the three regional landscapes over a 20-year period (2019-2039), and that multiple management actions are required to arrest and reverse the decline in koala populations of north-east NSW. Conclusions. Management actions for koala conservation should be based on regional context. Our model, in conjunction with robust expert-elicitation procedures, allows decision makers to distinguish effective from ineffective combinations of management actions for threatened species management, and has been structured so that new data can be incorporated into the model. Implications. Model design could be easily adapted to different species or conservation contexts, and updated as new evidence becomes available, making it valuable in adaptive management for local to regional-scale conservation problems.

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Title: Using expert elicitation to identify effective combinations of management actions for koala conservation in different regional landscapes
Creators: Emma B. Camus - University of Queensland
Jonathan R. Rhodes - University of Queensland
Clive A. McAlpine - University of Queensland
Daniel Lunney - University of Sydney
John Callaghan - Southern Cross Univ, Fac Sci & Engn, Lismore, NSW 2480, Australia
Ross Goldingay - Southern Cross University, Science
Angie Brace - Lismore City Council
Murray Hall - Univ Queensland, Ctr Biodivers & Conservat Sci, Brisbane, Qld 4072, Australia
Scott Benitez Hetherington - Tweed Shire Council
Marama Hopkins - Tweed Shire Council
Marek J. Druzdzel - Bialystok Tech Univ, Fac Comp Sci, Bialystok, Poland
Helen J. Mayfield - Univ Queensland, Ctr Biodivers & Conservat Sci, Brisbane, Qld 4072, Australia
Publication Details: Wildlife research (East Melbourne), pp.1-15
Publisher: Csiro Publishing
Number of pages: 15
Grant note: FT 200100096 / ARC Future Fellowship; Australian Research Council LP160100486 / ARC Linkage Project; Australian Research Council
Identifiers: 991013059413602368
Copyright: © 2022 The Author(s) (or their employer(s)). Published by CSIRO Publishing. This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License (CC BY-NC-ND)
Academic Unit: Faculty of Science and Engineering; Science
Language: English
Resource Type: Journal article

Using expert elicitation to identify effective combinations of management actions for koala conservation in different regional landscapes

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