The limits of permissible change in US politics and policy: learning from the Obama presidency

Barack Obama's election to the presidency offers scholars a rare opportunity to test their theories of modern representative democracy and US government. Different theories imply different trajectories for US politics and policy under Obama's leadership. In this article, the authors present one such theory, draw out its prognosis for the new administration, and contrast their predictions with those that follow from other, competing perspectives. In so doing, they are making some predictions for the record and hoping others will do likewise. It should be noted at the start that none of the many theoretical traditions currently active in political science and public administration would predict that Obama's policies will depart dramatically from those of his predecessor. The one area where Obama may be forced by his position as president to confront the treasonous guardians of American militarism, imperialism, and capitalism is in dealing with the war crimes of the Bush administration.