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Published (Version of record)CC BY V4.0, Open Access
Published (Version of record)CC BY V4.0, Open
Journal article
The implications of climate change for New Zealand’s freshwater fish
Canadian journal of fisheries and aquatic sciences, Vol.82, pp.1-15
06/02/2025
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Abstract
Climate change is poised to reshape ecological communities globally by driving species into new environments and altering interactions between species. Conservation efforts should not only address current pressures but also plan for future pressures, such as sensitive species moving into degraded environments or arising problematic trophic interactions. This study sought to assess how climate change may affect the end-of-century distributions of New Zealand’s native and non-native freshwater fish, including consequences for the overlap between trout (a non-native sports fish) and native species vulnerable to trout predation. Random forest modelling was used to predict end-of-century distributions for New Zealand’s freshwater fish based on six hydrologically downscaled global climate models across four representative concentration pathways. Severe climate change impacts could drive nine native fish species to extinction or near-extinction and cause substantial declines in another eight native species. Seven non-natives are also predicted to decline substantially, including a 30-40% reduction in the extent of trout. To avert these potential extinctions, it is crucial to mitigate climate change severity and improve land use impacting freshwater ecosystems.
Details
- Title
- The implications of climate change for New Zealand’s freshwater fish
- Creators
- A D Canning - James Cook UniversityC Zammit - National Institute of Water and Atmospheric ResearchR G Death - River Research, Pohangina, New Zealand
- Publication Details
- Canadian journal of fisheries and aquatic sciences, Vol.82, pp.1-15
- Publisher
- Canadian Science Publishing
- Number of pages
- 15
- Grant note
- This research was partially supported by the Wellington Fish and Game Council.
- Identifiers
- 991013245446902368
- Copyright
- © 2025 Authors Canning and Death; and National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research.
- Academic Unit
- Faculty of Science and Engineering
- Language
- English
- Resource Type
- Journal article