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The conservation impacts of ecological disturbance: Time-bound estimates of population loss and recovery for fauna affected by the 2019–2020 Australian megafires
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Journal article
The conservation impacts of ecological disturbance: time-bound estimates of population loss and recovery for fauna affected by the 2019–2020 Australian megafires
Global Ecology and Biogeography, Vol.31(10), pp.2085-2104
10/2022
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Abstract
Aim: After environmental disasters, species with large population losses may need ur-gent protection to prevent extinction and support recovery. Following the 2019–2020 Australian megafires, we estimated population losses and recovery in fire-affected fauna, to inform conservation status assessments and management.
Location: Temperate and subtropical Australia.
Time period: 2019–2030 and beyond.
Major taxa: Australian terrestrial and freshwater vertebrates; one invertebrate group.
Methods: From > 1,050 fire-affected taxa, we selected 173 whose distributions substantially overlapped the fire extent. We estimated the proportion of each taxon’s distribution affected by fires, using fire severity and aquatic impact mapping, and new distribution mapping. Using expert elicitation informed by evidence of responses to previous wildfires, we estimated local population responses to fires of varying severity. We combined the spatial and elicitation data to estimate overall population loss and recovery trajectories, and thus indicate potential eligibility for listing as threatened, or uplisting, under Australian legislation.
Results: We estimate that the 2019–2020 Australian megafires caused, or contributed to, population declines that make 70–82 taxa eligible for listing as threatened; and another 21–27 taxa eligible for uplisting. If so- listed, this represents a 22–26% increase in Australian statutory lists of threatened terrestrial and freshwater vertebrates and spiny crayfish, and uplisting for 8–10% of threatened taxa. Such changes would cause an abrupt worsening of underlying trajectories in vertebrates, as measured by Red List Indices. We predict that 54–88% of 173 assessed taxa will not re-cover to pre-fire population size within 10 years/three generations.
Main conclusions: We suggest the 2019–2020 Australian megafires have worsened the conservation prospects for many species. Of the 91 taxa recommended for listing/uplisting consideration, 84 are now under formal review through national processes. Improving predictions about taxon vulnerability with empirical data on population responses, reducing the likelihood of future catastrophic events and mitigating their impacts on biodiversity, are critical.
Details
- Title
- The conservation impacts of ecological disturbance: time-bound estimates of population loss and recovery for fauna affected by the 2019–2020 Australian megafires
- Creators
- Sarah Legge - Charles Darwin UniversityL Rumpff - University of MelbourneJ CZ Woinarski - The University of MelbourneN S Whiterod - Nature Glenelg TrustMichelle Ward - The University of QueenslandDarren Southwell - University of MelbourneBemjamin C Scheele - Australian National UniversityD G Nimmo - Charles Sturt UniversityMark Lintermans - University of CanberraH M Geyle - Charles Darwin UniversityStephen T Garnett - Charles Darwin UniversityBrittany Hayward-Brown - Charles Darwin UniversityM Ensbey - Charles Darwin UniversityG Ehmke - BirdLife AustraliaShane T Ahyong - University of New South WalesCaroline J Blackmore - NSW National Parks and Wildlife ServiceDeborah S Bower - University of New EnglandD Brizuela-Torres - University of MelbourneAllan H Burbidge - Department of Biodiversity, Conservation and AttractionsP Burns - Zoos VictoriaGavin L Butler - Grafton Fisheries CentreRenee Catullo - The University of Western AustraliaDavid G Chapple - Monash UniversityChris Dickman - University of SydneyKatherine E Doyle - Charles Sturt UniversityJason Ferris - Department of Agriculture, Water and the EnvironmentDiana Fisher - University of QueenslandRachael Gallagher - Macquarie UniversityGraeme R Gillespie - Northern Territory. Department of Environment and Natural ResourcesM J Greenlees - Australian MuseumR Hohnen - Charles Darwin UniversityConrad J Hoskin - James Cook UniversityDavid Hunter - NSW Department of Planning, Industry and EnvironmentChris Jolly - Charles Sturt UniversityMark Kennard - Griffith UniversityAlison King - La Trobe UniversityDiana Kuchinke - Federation UniversityBrad Law - New South Wales Department of Primary IndustriesIvan Lawler - Department of Agriculture, Water and the EnvironmentSusan Lawler - La Trobe UniversityRichard Lyon - La Trobe UniversityDaniel Lunney - Australian MuseumJarod Lyon - Arthur Rylah Institute for Environmental ResearchJosephine MacHunter - Arthur Rylah Institute for Environmental ResearchMichael J Mahony - University of NewcastleStephen Mahony - Australian MuseumRobert B McCormack - Carnegie Museum of Natural HistoryJane Melville - Monash UniversityPeter Menkhorst - La Trobe UniversityDamian Michael - Charles Sturt UniversityNicola Mitchell - University of Western AustraliaEri Mulder - Wongalara Wildlife SanctuaryDavid Newell - Southern Cross UniversityLuke Pearce - NSW Department of Primary IndustriesT A Raadik - Arthur Rylah Institute for Environmental ResearchJodi J L Rowley - Australian MuseumH Sitters - University of MelbourneR Spencer - Western Sydney UniversityR Valavi - University of MelbourneMatthew West - University of MelbourneDavid P Wilkinson - University of MelbourneSylvia Zukowski - Nature Glenelg Trust
- Publication Details
- Global Ecology and Biogeography, Vol.31(10), pp.2085-2104
- Publisher
- Wiley-Blackwell Publishing Ltd.
- Identifiers
- 991013000398702368
- Copyright
- This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial License, which permits use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited and is not used for commercial purposes.© 2022 The Authors. Global Ecology and Biogeography published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
- Academic Unit
- Faculty of Science and Engineering; National Marine Science Centre; Science
- Language
- English
- Resource Type
- Journal article