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Temporal feature engineering for agricultural commodity price forecasting in Nigeria: evaluating machine learning, deep learning and time-series approaches
Journal article   Open access   Peer reviewed

Temporal feature engineering for agricultural commodity price forecasting in Nigeria: evaluating machine learning, deep learning and time-series approaches

Damilare Ogunjobi, Rania Shibl and Shahrzad Saremi
Journal of agribusiness in developing and emerging economies, Vol.First online, pp.1-28
04/09/2026
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1108/JADEE-05-2026-0385
Appears in  Recent Faculty of Science and Engineering Publications
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Published (Version of record) Open CC BY V4.0

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Abstract

Agricultural price prediction Machine learning Time-series forecasting Random forest LSTM Temporal feature engineering Nigeria
Purpose: This study investigates the effectiveness of machine learning, deep learning and traditional time-series approaches for predicting agricultural commodity prices in Nigeria, focussing on improving forecasting reliability through temporal feature engineering and time-aware evaluation using the WFP Nigeria dataset. Design/methodology/approach: The study uses 60,566 observations across Nigerian commodity markets (2002-2025). Linear Regression, Random Forest, ARIMA, and LSTM models were evaluated using lag and rolling-average temporal features, with walk-forward validation preserving temporal integrity for realistic assessment. Findings: Machine learning models outperformed traditional statistical approaches. Random Forest (R-2 = 0.497) exceeded Linear Regression (R-2 = 0.465), while ARIMA yielded a negativeR(2)(-0.259). LSTM achieved its strongest performance for maize (R-2 = 0.640) and sorghum (R-2 = 0.468), while several highly volatile commodities produced negativeR(2)values despite extended training and Early Stopping. These results highlight the role of commodity-specific characteristics in price forecasting, with walk-forward validation revealing considerable temporal performance variation. Research limitations/implications: The study relies primarily on historical price data and does not incorporate exogenous variables such as weather, inflation, transportation costs or policy interventions. Originality/value: This study contributes to the agricultural forecasting literature by integrating temporal feature engineering, chronological validation, walk-forward evaluation, and comparative modelling within a unified framework using a Nigerian commodity price dataset, providing commodity-level evidence on the varying effectiveness of machine learning, deep learning and traditional statistical approaches under realistic forecasting conditions.

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