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Published (Version of record)CC BY V4.0, Open Access
Published (Version of record)CC BY V4.0, Open
Journal article
Seasonal changes in the habitat suitability of immature white sharks ( Carcharodon carcharias ) driven by ocean warming
ICES journal of marine science, Vol.82(5), pp.1-14
22/05/2025
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Abstract
Ocean warming is redistributing marine biodiversity globally. Assessing shifts in species distributions is particularly interesting for large, highly mobile marine predators, as their movement ecology increases their propensity to respond to changing environments and move to more suitable habitats. We built multi-variable and temperature-only habitat suitability models for white sharks (Carcharodon carcharias) under historic and future climate scenarios throughout south-eastern Australian bioregions. Models used satellite tag data from 41 white sharks over 6 years (2015–2020) and associated environmental variables. Future model projections were applied using downscaled sea surface temperature to quantify changes in suitable habitat based on temperature between 2024 and 2080 under moderate (SSP2-4.5) and high (SSP5-8.5) climate change scenarios. Suitable thermal habitat for white sharks will likely shift poleward during Austral winter and spring, and equatorward in summer and autumn. By 2080, equatorial bioregions may become unsuitable year-round, while some poleward regions will likely increase in suitability by 27–38% in autumn, winter, and spring. Shifts in thermal suitability will likely alter the timing and extent of seasonal temperature-triggered equatorial migrations and may alter trophic dynamics and human–shark interactions. Our findings will help regional management prepare for ecological and safety implications of changing white shark distribution.
Details
- Title
- Seasonal changes in the habitat suitability of immature white sharks ( Carcharodon carcharias ) driven by ocean warming
- Creators
- Adrienne Gooden - Southern Cross UniversityCurtis Champion - Southern Cross UniversityCharlie Huveneers - Flinders UniversityBrendan Kelaher - Southern Cross UniversityPaul A Butcher - Southern Cross University
- Publication Details
- ICES journal of marine science, Vol.82(5), pp.1-14
- Publisher
- Oxford University Press
- Grant note
- NSW Government's Shark Management Program: P01/0059, P16/0145-1.1, ACEC 07/08: ARA 21/034
This work was completed under NSW DPIRD 'Scientific' (Ref. P01/0059(A)), 'Marine Parks' (Ref. P16/0145-1.1) and 'Animal Care and Ethics' (ACEC 07/08: ARA 21/034) permits. This project would not have been possible without the dedicated support of contracted fishers and the NSW DPIRD shark research team, and those staff and contractors associated with the NSW Government's Shark Management Program. We are grateful to Dr James R. Lawson for his valuable technical assistance in downscaling future SST data from a suite of global climate models. We would also like to thank Dr Jordan Matley for his assistance with preparing the satellite data for analysis and guidance with satellite track reconstruction.
- Identifiers
- 991013285421702368
- Copyright
- © The Author(s) 2025.
- Academic Unit
- Faculty of Science and Engineering; National Marine Science Centre
- Language
- English
- Resource Type
- Journal article