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Sea-level rise and extreme Indian Ocean Dipole explain mangrove dieback in the Maldives
Journal article   Open access   Peer reviewed

Sea-level rise and extreme Indian Ocean Dipole explain mangrove dieback in the Maldives

Lucy Carruthers, Vasile Ersek, Damien Maher, Christian Sanders, Douglas Tait, Juliano Soares, Matthew Floyd, Aminath Shaha Hashim, Stephanie Helber, Mark Garnett, …
Scientific reports, Vol.14(1), 27012
12/11/2024
PMID: 39532894
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Abstract

Multidisciplinary Sciences Science & Technology Science & Technology - Other Topics
Mangrove forests enhance Small Island Developing States' resilience to climate change, yet in 2020, a mangrove dieback impacted similar to 25% of mangrove-containing islands in the Maldives. Using remote sensing, dendrology and sediment geochemistry, we document a significant decrease in mangrove health post-2020 (NDVI: 0.75 +/- 0.09) compared to pre-2020 (0.85 +/- 0.04; P < 0.0001). Dead trees showed reduced stomatal conductance (delta C-13: - 26.21 +/- 0.11 parts per thousand) relative to living ones (- 27.66 +/- 0.14 parts per thousand), indicating salinity stress. Critically, sea-level rise (30.50 +/- 23.30 mm/year) outpaced mangrove sediment accretion (6.40 +/- 0.69 mm/year) five-fold between 2017 and 2020. We attribute this dieback to salinity stress driven by record-high sea levels in 2020, linked to an extreme positive Indian Ocean Dipole event. These findings reveal the vulnerability of mangrove ecosystems to rapid sea-level rise and highlights the urgent need for adaptive conservation strategies in Small Island Developing States.

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