Journal article
Quantifying the 2023 sudden forest canopy dieback event in southeastern Australia using ground-based surveys and Sentinel-2-derived live fuel moisture content
Agricultural and forest meteorology, Vol.387, pp.1-18
15/08/2026
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Abstract
Extreme climatic events, particularly prolonged droughts and high-intensity wildfires, are becoming increasingly frequent, drawing attention to the compounding impacts of these events on forest ecosystems. Following a severe early-season drought, southeastern Australia experienced sudden and extensive forest canopy dieback between September and October 2023. In this study, we addressed two main objectives: (1) to develop a high-resolution canopy dieback prediction model for classifying the severity of the 2023 canopy dieback event, and (2) to analyze the key drivers of its spatial pattern. For objective 1, we selected and tested a suite of canopy moistureand greenness-related variables from Sentinel-2A/2B data (10 m). A random forest model was trained using these variables, with a classification accuracy of 0.93. Live fuel moisture content (LFMC) emerged as the most significant predictor for predicting dieback, yielding a classification accuracy of 0.91 when using it alone. For objective 2, a SHAP analysis of the spatial drivers of dieback revealed that north-facing slopes and ridges experienced the highest canopy loss, while areas affected by the 2019–2020 megafires were significantly associated with more severe canopy dieback, suggesting a potential legacy effect that warrants further investigation. A time-series analysis from 2019 to 2023 identified multiple canopy dieback events coinciding with periods of drought and wildfire, highlighting a compounding stress cycle of drought–wildfire–drought. These findings underscore the robustness of the remotely sensed LFMC in predicting canopy dieback and highlight the importance of integrating climate, topographic, and disturbance factors into forest management to mitigate canopy dieback and enhance ecosystem resilience.
Details
- Title
- Quantifying the 2023 sudden forest canopy dieback event in southeastern Australia using ground-based surveys and Sentinel-2-derived live fuel moisture content
- Creators
- Xingwen Quan - University of Electronic Science and Technology of ChinaMatthias M. Boer - Western Sydney UniversityRachael H. Nolan - Western Sydney UniversityBinbin He - University of Electronic Science and Technology of ChinaEil Bendall - Western Sydney UniversityRebecca Gibson - Department of Climate Change, Energy, the Environment and WaterAngus J. Carnegie - Department of Primary Industries and Regional DevelopmentBrendan Choat - Western Sydney University
- Publication Details
- Agricultural and forest meteorology, Vol.387, pp.1-18
- Publisher
- Elsevier B.V.; AMSTERDAM
- Grant note
- This work was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Contract No U23A2018 & 42571443), Sichuan Science and Technology Program (Research on Precise Identification of Forest Fire Risks for Distribution Lines of 35 kV and Below Crossing Forest Areas and No 2025ZNSFSC0323), and Australian Research Council Discovery Grant (Contract No DP220103440).
- Identifiers
- 991013385452502368
- Copyright
- © 2026 Elsevier B.V.
- Academic Unit
- Faculty of Science and Engineering
- Language
- English
- Resource Type
- Journal article