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Projecting kelp (Ecklonia radiata) gametophyte thermal adaptation and persistence under climate change
Journal article   Open access   Peer reviewed

Projecting kelp (Ecklonia radiata) gametophyte thermal adaptation and persistence under climate change

R J Veenhof, C Champion, S A Dworjanyn, J Schwoerbel, W Visch and M. A. Coleman
Annals of botany, Vol.133(1), pp.153-168
01/01/2024
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1093/aob/mcad132
PMID: 37665952
Appears in  Recent Faculty of Science and Engineering Publications
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UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

This output has contributed to the advancement of the following goals:

#13 Climate Action
#14 Life Below Water
#15 Life on Land

Source: InCites

Abstract

climate change Ecklonia radiata gametophytes generalized additive modelling genetic clusters kelp forests thermal adaptation ocean warming spatial projections range edge thermal resilience
Background and aims Kelp forests underpin temperate marine ecosystems but are declining due to ocean warming, causing loss of associated ecosystem services. Projections suggest significant future decline but often only consider the persistence of adult sporophytes. Kelps have a biphasic life cycle, and the haploid gametophyte can be more thermally tolerant than the sporophyte. Therefore, projections may be altered when considering thermal tolerance of gametophytes. Methods We undertook thermal tolerance experiments to quantify the effect of temperature on gametophyte survival, relative growth rates (RGR) and sex ratio for three genetically distinct populations of Ecklonia radiata gametophytes from comparatively high, mid and low latitudes (43°, 33° and 30°S). We then used this data to project the likely consequences of climate induced thermal change on gametophyte persistence and performance across its eastern Australian range, using generalised additive and linear models. Key results All populations were adapted to local temperatures and their thermal maximum was 2-3°C above current maximum in situ temperatures. The lowest latitude population was most thermally tolerant (~70% survival up to 27°C), while survival and RGR decreased beyond 25.5°C and 20.5°C for the mid- and low latitude populations, respectively. Sex ratios were skewed towards females with increased temperature in the low- and high latitude populations. Spatially explicit model projections under future ocean warming (2050-centred) revealed a minimal decline in survival (0-30%) across populations, relative to present-day predictions. RGRs were also projected to decline minimally (0-2% d -1). Conclusions: Our results contrast with projections for the sporophyte stage of E. radiata, which suggest a 257 km range contraction concurrent with loss of the low latitude population by 2100. Thermal adaptation in E. radiata gametophytes suggests this life stage is likely resilient to future ocean warming and is unlikely a bottleneck for the future persistence of kelp.

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