Predicting the spatial distribution of gambling vulnerability: an application of gravity modeling using ABS Mesh Blocks

To date, a method for the cost-effective prediction of venue catchments, and hence the spatial distribution of EGM harm, has not been available at the local level. As a first step in developing such a method, we explore the utility of a gravity modeling approach to predict the spatial distribution of venue catchments in a metropolitan region of the Northern Territory, Australia. Key inputs for the model presented include existing venue and recently released ABS Mesh Block data. We subsequently perform a combinatory analysis that integrates the predicted venue catchments with an Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) measure of social disadvantage to generate a gambling vulnerability surface. The advantages of this approach are that it allows visualization of catchments for effective communication, is based upon existing and current data that is available publicly through the ABS making it cost-effective, and provides a fine-grained local-level assessment of gambling vulnerability for applied policy purposes.