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Journal article
Predicting coral-reef futures from El Niño and Pacific Decadal Oscillation events
Scientific Reports, Vol.10, 7735
2020
PMID: 32385336
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Abstract
El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events modulate oceanographic processes that control temperature and productivity in tropical waters, yet potential interactions with low frequency climate variability, such as the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), are poorly understood. We show that ENSO and PDO together predicted (i) maximum sea-surface temperatures (SST), which were associated with coral bleaching and declines in coral cover, and (ii) maximum chlorophyll-a concentrations, which were associated with high densities of coral-predatory Acanthaster starfish, across the tropical north Pacific Ocean since 1980. Asynchrony between the positive PDO and negative ENSO (i.e., La Niña) was associated with peaks in annual SST. By contrast, synchrony between the positive PDO and positive ENSO (i.e., El Niño) was associated with peaks in chlorophyll-a. Both conditions led to ecological disturbances and significant loss of coral cover, however, spatial models revealed where impacts to reefs were expected under varying climate scenarios. The 2015/17 ENSO event was coupled with a positive PDO and resulted in high SST and Acanthaster abundances in eastern Micronesia, while positive coral growth occurred in western Micronesia. Our novel approach for forecasting coral growth into the future may be applicable to other oceanic regions with differing oceanographic modulators.
Details
- Title
- Predicting coral-reef futures from El Niño and Pacific Decadal Oscillation events
- Creators
- Peter Houk (Author) - University of Guam Marine LaboratoryAnthony Yalon (Author) - Yap Community Action Program (FM)Selino Maxin (Author) - Conservation Society of Pohnpei (Micronesia)Christy Starsinic (Author) - University of Guam Marine LaboratoryAndrew McInnis (Author) - University of Guam Marine LaboratoryMarine Gouezo (Author) - Palau International Coral Reef CenterYimnang Golbuu (Author) - Palau International Coral Reef CenterRobert Van Woesik (Author) - Florida Institute of Technology
- Publication Details
- Scientific Reports, Vol.10, 7735
- Grant note
- This work was funded by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Coral Conservation grant NA18NOS4820017 administered through the Micronesia Conservation Trust.
- Identifiers
- 991012912694502368
- Academic Unit
- Faculty of Science and Engineering; Marine Ecology Research Centre; Science
- Language
- English
- Resource Type
- Journal article