Positive SOI, negative PDO and spring tides as simple indicators of the potential for extreme coastal erosion in northern NSW

The coastal Township of Kingscliff in northern NSW experienced severe erosion during 2010, resulting in the loss of 2 hectares of vegetated dune along a 200 metre length of foreshore. The catalyst for this erosion was a unique pattern of large waves from an easterly direction in early 2009 that resulted in the gradual lowering of the beach profile and led to severe erosion on spring tides in 2010. This erosion has coincided with the onset of a La Niña event and the beginning of a negative phase for the PDO. Analysis of past and current erosion events at Kingscliff shows a strong relationship between positive SOI, negative PDO, spring tides and severe erosion at Kingscliff. These indicators could act as simple indicators of the potential for extreme coastal erosion along the east coast of NSW allowing early implementation of mitigation strategies