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Journal article
Natural selection could determine whether Acropora corals persist under expected climate change
Science, Vol.386(6727), pp.1289-1294
28/11/2024
PMID: 39607905
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Source: InCites
Abstract
Marine heatwaves are intensifying under climate change, exposing populations of reef-building corals to mass mortality and intense selective pressure. It remains unknown whether adaptation can keep pace with warming and maintain reef functioning. We have developed an eco-evolutionary metapopulation model for Acropora, an ecologically important yet thermally sensitive coral taxon. We found that, although corals have some adaptation capacity, they will suffer severe heatwave-induced declines over the coming decades. For a future in which emissions lead to ~3°C of global warming, natural selection could allow populations to persist, albeit in severely depleted states with elevated extinction risk and potential loss of ecosystem functioning. Yet, for thermally sensitive coral populations to thrive beyond 2050, there must be rapid reductions of greenhouse gas emissions that limit global warming to 2°C.
Details
- Title
- Natural selection could determine whether Acropora corals persist under expected climate change
- Creators
- Liam Lachs - Newcastle UniversityYves-Marie Bozec - School of the Environment, The University of Queensland, St. Lucia, AustraliaJohn C Bythell - Newcastle UniversitySimon D Donner - University of British ColumbiaHolly K East - Northumbria UniversityAlasdair J Edwards - Newcastle UniversityYimnang Golbuu - Palau International Coral Reef CenterMarine Gouezo - Palau International Coral Reef CenterJames R Guest - Newcastle University (Newcastle Upon Tyne)Adriana Humanes - Newcastle UniversityCynthia Riginos - The University of QueenslandPeter J Mumby - University of Queensland
- Publication Details
- Science, Vol.386(6727), pp.1289-1294
- Publisher
- American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)
- Grant note
- This research was funded in whole or in part by UKRI (NE/T014547/1, NE/S007512/1), a cOAlition S organization.
- Identifiers
- 991013240813602368
- Copyright
- Copyright © 2024 the authors, some rights reserved; exclusive licensee American Association for the Advancement of Science. No claim to original US government works. https://www.science.org/about/science-licenses-journal-article-reuse. The author will make the Author Accepted Manuscript (AAM) version available under a CC BY public copyright license.
- Academic Unit
- Faculty of Science and Engineering; Science
- Language
- English
- Resource Type
- Journal article