Journal article
Mapping marine debris risk using expert elicitation, empirical data, and spatial modelling
Environmental science & policy, Vol.138, pp.44-55
12/2022
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Abstract
Anthropogenic debris is a widespread and prevalent component of aquatic systems. Organisms are increasing exposed to debris, leading to detrimental impacts through pathways such as entanglement, ingestion, and bioaccumulation. Multiple taxa interact with debris, and while the consequences to individual organisms are known in principle, their impacts at scales relevant to management are poorly understood. Despite uncertainties, decision-makers are tasked with addressing issues associated with debris and require an estimate of risks. Here, we provide a methodology to estimate the risk posed by specific debris items to a range of organisms within a management area. Risk was determined as a function of both (1) the consequence of an interaction, and (2) the likelihood of exposure, estimated through expert elicitation and empirical debris data, respectively. Using the New South Wales (NSW) Marine Estate as a case study, the methodology identified specific debris items posing risks to seven biological ‘assets’ (benthic assemblages, cetaceans, fish and sharks, planktonic assemblages, shorebirds, seabirds, turtles) through several pathways. Items posing ‘high risk’ to these biological groups included fishing-related items (fishing line, nets, traps and pots) through pathways of ingestion and entanglement. Microplastics and hard-plastic fragments also posed high risk via ingestion and bioaccumulation. The values were then assessed spatially, using marine debris databases, identifying variability in risk across the Marine Estate and thus, priority areas for management. By identifying the prominent debris items causing risks to specific and multiple assets, resources may be better allocated to maximise the efficacy of interventions.
•We provide a novel methodology to assess the relative risk of debris items to marine biota.
•Qualitative risk values are estimated within a management area.
•Entanglement and ingestion from fishing items posed elevated risk.
•Bioaccumulation from plastic fragments and microplastics posed elevated risk.
•Debris risk showed differences latitudinally, being higher near major population centres.
Details
- Title
- Mapping marine debris risk using expert elicitation, empirical data, and spatial modelling
- Creators
- Jordan Gacutan - UNSW SydneyEdwina Foulsham - Science Division, Department of Planning and Environment, NSW Government, Lidcombe, NSW 2141, AustraliaJohn W. Turnbull - School of Biological, Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW 2052, AustraliaStephen D.A. Smith - Southern Cross UniversityGraeme F. Clark - University of New South Wales
- Publication Details
- Environmental science & policy, Vol.138, pp.44-55
- Comment
- We are grateful for the time and effort of the 45 experts who participated in the Delphi process. Spatial analyses were made possible through the Australian Marine Debris Initiative (AMDI) database, Key Litter Items Survey (KLIS, NSW Government), Sea Shephard Marine Debris Campaign and research by Smith and Edgar (2014). We are grateful for the volunteers across New South Wales who contributed to these debris databases. We acknowledge the valuable contribution of members of the Marine Debris Working Group, including Susan Crocetti, David Hanslow, Sarah Joyce, Hamish Malcolm, Tim Pritchard, Karrie Rose, Rupert Saville, Peter Scanes, Heidi Tait, and Scott Wilson.
- Publisher
- Elsevier Ltd
- Grant note
- This research was part of the NSW Marine Estate Management Strategy, which was funded by the NSW Government. Jordan Gacutan is supported by the UNSW Sydney Scientia PhD program.
- Identifiers
- 991013056613502368
- Copyright
- © 2022 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
- Academic Unit
- Faculty of Science and Engineering
- Language
- English
- Resource Type
- Journal article