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Published (Version of record)CC BY-NC-ND V4.0, Open Access
Published (Version of record)CC BY-NC-ND V4.0, Open
Journal article
Global declines in coral reef calcium carbonate production under ocean acidification and warming
National Academy of Sciences. Proceedings, Vol.118(21), pp.1-10
25/05/2021
PMCID: PMC8166140
PMID: 33972407
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Abstract
Ocean warming and acidification threaten the future growth of coral reefs. This is because the calcifying coral reef taxa that construct the calcium carbonate frameworks and cement the reef together are highly sensitive to ocean warming and acidification. However, the global-scale effects of ocean warming and acidification on rates of coral reef net carbonate production remain poorly constrained despite a wealth of studies assessing their effects on the calcification of individual organisms. Here, we present global estimates of projected future changes in coral reef net carbonate production under ocean warming and acidification. We apply a meta-analysis of responses of coral reef taxa calcification and bioerosion rates to predicted changes in coral cover driven by climate change to estimate the net carbonate production rates of 183 reefs worldwide by 2050 and 2100. We forecast mean global reef net carbonate production under representative concentration pathways (RCP) 2.6, 4.5, and 8.5 will decline by 76, 149, and 156%, respectively, by 2100. While 63% of reefs are projected to continue to accrete by 2100 under RCP2.6, 94% will be eroding by 2050 under RCP8.5, and no reefs will continue to accrete at rates matching projected sea level rise under RCP4.5 or 8.5 by 2100. Projected reduced coral cover due to bleaching events predominately drives these declines rather than the direct physiological impacts of ocean warming and acidification on calcification or bioerosion. Presently degraded reefs were also more sensitive in our analysis. These findings highlight the low likelihood that the world’s coral reefs will maintain their functional roles without near-term stabilization of atmospheric CO2 emissions.
Details
- Title
- Global declines in coral reef calcium carbonate production under ocean acidification and warming
- Creators
- Christopher E Cornwall - Victoria University of WellingtonSteeve Comeau - University of Western AustraliaNiklas A Kornder - University of AmsterdamChris T Perry - University of ExeterRuben van Hooidonk - University of MiamiThomas M DeCarlo - University of Western AustraliaMorgan S Pratchett - ARC Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef StudiesKristen D Anderson - ARC Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef StudiesNicola Browne - Curtin UniversityRobert Carpenter - California State University, NorthridgeGuillermo Diaz-Pulido - Griffith UniversityJuan P D'Olivo - University of Western AustraliaSteve S Doo - California State University, NorthridgeJoana Figueiredo - Nova Southeastern UniversitySofia A V Fortunato - James Cook UniversityEmma Kennedy - Griffith UniversityCoulson A Lantz - Southern Cross UniversityMalcolm T McCulloch - University of Western AustraliaManuel González-Rivero - Australian Institute of Marine ScienceVerena Schoepf - University of Western AustraliaScott G Smithers - James Cook UniversityRyan J Lowe - University of Western Australia
- Publication Details
- National Academy of Sciences. Proceedings, Vol.118(21), pp.1-10
- Publisher
- National Academy of Sciences
- Grant note
- Funding from the Australian Research Council (ARC) Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies supported the initial workshop and supported C.E.C., M.S.P., K.D.A., M.T.M., M.G.-R., V.S., and R.J.L. S.C. was supported by an ARC Discovery Early Career Researcher Award. C.E.C. was supported by a Rutherford Discovery Fellowship from The Royal Society of New Zealand Te Apārangi. R.V.H. was supported by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Coral Reef Conservation Program. G.D.-P. was supported by grants from ARC (DP160103071) and the Great Barrier Reef Foundation. C.T.P. was supported by the Bertarelli Foundation as part of the Bertarelli Programme in Marine Science.
- Identifiers
- 991012948480702368
- Copyright
- Copyright © 2021 the Author(s). Published by PNAS. This open access article is distributed under Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives License 4.0 (CC BY-NC-ND).
- Academic Unit
- Centre for Coastal Biogeochemistry; Faculty of Science and Engineering; School of Environment, Science and Engineering; Science
- Language
- English
- Resource Type
- Journal article