Estimating sapling vitality for Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) in Russian Karelia

A new method is proposed for estimating vitality or growth potential for saplings of Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.), based on height, diameter and height increment. A two-stage process was used to establish the vitality index. The logarithms of height, diameter and height increment were regressed against age, to adjust for the wide range of ages present in our data (c. 10,000 saplings with ages spanning 4–50 years). Then principal component analysis was used to obtain coefficients, which were, in turn, standardized on each axis to provide a vitality index scaled in standard deviations. This standardized scale allows the rank of an individual in the population to be assessed, and draws attention to possible outliers. The use of age-adjusted residuals ensured that the estimator was independent of age, and stable over a wide age range. The first principal component indicates if a sapling is relatively tall (weight = 0.5), thick (w = 0.5) or fast-growing (w = 0.7) for its age. Most of the information is contained in the first principal component, but the second component, which explains about 10% of the variance, appears to offer some utility as an indicator of ‘acceleration’ due to changing conditions. The resulting measures of vitality have been useful for research and management in the dry lichen-moss pine forest in Russian Karelia, but are specific to this species, locality and ecotype. Further research and site-specific data are necessary to adapt the system to other situations.