Emergency department presentations during the COVID-19 pandemic in Queensland (to June 2021): interrupted time series analysis

Amy L Sweeny; Gerben Keijzers; Andrea Marshall; Emma J Hall; Jamie Ranse; Ping Zhang; Gary Grant; Ya-Ling Huang; Dinesh Palipana; Yang D Teng; Benjamin Gerhardy; Jaimi H Greenslade; Philip Jones; Julia L Crilly

doi:10.5694/mja2.51819

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Emergency department presentations during the COVID-19 pandemic in Queensland (to June 2021): interrupted time series analysis

Journal article

Open access

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Emergency department presentations during the COVID-19 pandemic in Queensland (to June 2021): interrupted time series analysis

Amy L Sweeny, Gerben Keijzers, Andrea Marshall, Emma J Hall, Jamie Ranse, Ping Zhang, Gary Grant, Ya-Ling Huang, Dinesh Palipana, Yang D Teng, …

Medical journal of Australia, pp.1-6

26/12/2022

DOI: https://doi.org/10.5694/mja2.51819

PMID: 36567660

Appears in Recent Faculty of Health Publications

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Abstract

COVID-19

infectious

medical

Disease transmission

Emergency services

Forecasting

Public health

Objectives To assess emergency department (ED) presentation numbers in Queensland during the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic to mid-2021, a period of relatively low COVID-19 case numbers. Design Interrupted time series analysis. Setting All 105 Queensland public hospital EDs. Main outcome measures Numbers of ED presentations during the COVID-19 lockdown period (11 March 2020 – 30 June 2020) and the period of easing restrictions (1 July 2020 – 30 June 2021), compared with pre-pandemic period (1 January 2018 – 10 March 2020), overall (daily numbers) and by Australasian Triage Scale (ATS; daily numbers) and selected diagnostic categories (cardiac, respiratory, mental health, injury-related conditions) and conditions (stroke, sepsis) (weekly numbers). Results During the lockdown period, the mean number of ED presentations was 19.4% lower (95% confidence interval, –20.9% to –17.9%) than during the pre-pandemic period (predicted mean number: 5935; actual number: 4786 presentations). The magnitudes of the decline and the time to return to predicted levels varied by ATS category and diagnostic group; changes in presentation numbers were least marked for ATS 1 and 2 (most urgent) presentations, and for presentations with cardiac conditions or stroke. Numbers remained below predicted levels during the 12-month post-lockdown period for ATS 5 (least urgent) presentations and presentations with mental health problems, respiratory conditions, or sepsis. Conclusions The COVID-19 pandemic and related public restrictions were associated with profound changes in health care use. Pandemic plans should include advice about continuing to seek care for serious health conditions and health emergencies, and support alternative sources of care for less urgent health care needs.

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Title: Emergency department presentations during the COVID-19 pandemic in Queensland (to June 2021): interrupted time series analysis
Creators: Amy L Sweeny - Gold Coast Hospital
Gerben Keijzers - Bond University
Andrea Marshall - Griffith University
Emma J Hall - Gold Coast Hospital
Jamie Ranse - Menzies Health Institute Queensland, Griffith University, Gold Coast, QLD
Ping Zhang - Griffith University
Gary Grant - Menzies Health Institute Queensland, Griffith University, Gold Coast, QLD
Ya-Ling Huang - Southern Cross University
Dinesh Palipana - Gold Coast Hospital
Yang D Teng - Harvard Medical School
Benjamin Gerhardy - Nepean Hospital
Jaimi H Greenslade - Queensland University of Technology
Philip Jones - Gold Coast Hospital
Julia L Crilly - Griffith University
Publication Details: Medical journal of Australia, pp.1-6
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons, Ltd
Grant note: Emergency Medicine Foundation
Identifiers: 991013075220902368
Copyright: © 2022 The Authors. Medical Journal of Australia published by John Wiley & Sons Australia, Ltd on behalf of AMPCo Pty Ltd. This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial License, which permits use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited and is not used for commercial purposes.
Academic Unit: Nursing; Faculty of Health
Language: English
Resource Type: Journal article

Emergency department presentations during the COVID-19 pandemic in Queensland (to June 2021): interrupted time series analysis

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