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Characterising the seasonal nature of meteorological drought onset and termination across Australia2.23 MB
Published (Version of record)CC BY-NC-ND V4.0, Open Access
Published (Version of record)CC BY-NC-ND V4.0, Open
Journal article
Characterising the seasonal nature of meteorological drought onset and termination across Australia
JOURNAL OF SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE EARTH SYSTEMS SCIENCE, Vol.72(1), pp.38-51
01/01/2022
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Source: InCites
Abstract
Drought, and its associated impacts, represents one of the costliest natural hazards worldwide, highlighting the need for prediction and preparedness. While advancements have been made in monitoring current droughts, prediction of onset and termination have proven to be much more challenging. This is because drought is unlike any other natural hazard and cannot be characterised by a single weather event. There is also a high degree of spatial variability in this phenomenon across the vast expanse of the Australian continent. Therefore, by characterising regionally specific expressions of drought, we may improve drought predictability. In this study, we analyse the timing of onset and termination of meteorological droughts across Australia from 1900 to 2015, as well as their local and regional climate controls. We show that meteorological drought onset has a strong seasonal signature across Australia that varies spatially, whereas termination is less seasonally restricted. Using a Random Forest modelling approach with predictor variables representative of large-scale ocean-atmosphere phenomena and local climate, up to 75% of the variance in the Standardised Precipitation Index during both onset and termination could be explained. This study offers support to continued development in long-lead forecasting of local and large-scale ocean/atmosphere conditions to improve drought prediction in Australia and elsewhere.
Details
- Title
- Characterising the seasonal nature of meteorological drought onset and termination across Australia
- Creators
- A. J. Gibson - Southern Cross UniversityD. C. Verdon-Kidd - University of Newcastle AustraliaG. R. Hancock - University of Newcastle Australia
- Publication Details
- JOURNAL OF SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE EARTH SYSTEMS SCIENCE, Vol.72(1), pp.38-51
- Publisher
- Csiro Publishing
- Number of pages
- 14
- Grant note
- The work has been conducted under the funding of a Research Training Program scholarship and a CSIRO post-graduate top-up scholarship (Grant no. G1700834).
- Identifiers
- 991013054810302368
- Copyright
- © 2022 The Author(s) (or their employer(s)). Published by CSIRO Publishing on behalf of BoM. This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons AttributionNonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License (CC BY-NC-ND).
- Academic Unit
- Faculty of Science and Engineering
- Language
- English
- Resource Type
- Journal article