Regression forecasting of patient admission data

Justin Boyle; Marianne Wallis; Melanie Jessup; Julia Crilly; James Lind; Peter Miller; Gerard Fitzgerald

doi:10.1109/IEMBS.2008.4650041

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Conference paper

Regression forecasting of patient admission data

Justin Boyle, Marianne Wallis, Melanie Jessup, Julia Crilly, James Lind, Peter Miller and Gerard Fitzgerald

2008 30th Annual International Conference of the IEEE Engineering in Medicine and Biology Society, Vol.2008, pp.3819-3822

IEEE

Annual International Conference of the IEEE Engineering in Medicine and Biology Society (EMBC) (Vancouver, Canada, 2008)

08/2008

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1109/IEMBS.2008.4650041

PMID: 19163544

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Abstract

Forecasting is an important aid in many areas of hospital management, including elective surgery scheduling, bed management, and staff resourcing. This paper describes our work in analyzing patient admission data and forecasting this data using regression techniques. Five years of Emergency Department admissions data were obtained from two hospitals with different demographic techniques. Forecasts made from regression models were compared with observed admission data over a 6-month horizon. The best method was linear regression using 11 dummy variables to model monthly variation (MAPE=1.79%). Similar performance was achieved with a 2-year average, supporting further investigation at finer time scales.

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Title: Regression forecasting of patient admission data
Creators: Justin Boyle - Australian E-Health Research Centre, CSIRO ICT Centre, PO.Box 10842, Adelaide St, Brisbane, 4000, Australia
Marianne Wallis - Griffith University, Qld, Australia
Melanie Jessup - Griffith University, Qld, Australia
Julia Crilly - Gold Coast and Toowoomba, Hospitals, Queensland Health, Australia
James Lind - Gold Coast and Toowoomba, Hospitals, Queensland Health, Australia
Peter Miller - Gold Coast and Toowoomba, Hospitals, Queensland Health, Australia
Gerard Fitzgerald - Queensland University of Technology, Australia
Publication Details: 2008 30th Annual International Conference of the IEEE Engineering in Medicine and Biology Society, Vol.2008, pp.3819-3822
Conference: Annual International Conference of the IEEE Engineering in Medicine and Biology Society (EMBC) (Vancouver, Canada, 2008)
Publisher: IEEE
Identifiers: 991012927095902368
Academic Unit: Nursing; Faculty of Health
Language: English
Resource Type: Conference paper

Regression forecasting of patient admission data

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