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Fate of Coastal Aquifers under the Changing Climate and Hydrologic Extremes: Review and Modeling Scenarios
Book chapter

Fate of Coastal Aquifers under the Changing Climate and Hydrologic Extremes: Review and Modeling Scenarios

Haile Arefayne Shishaye
Handbook of Climate Change Management: Research, Leadership, Transformation, pp.675-691
04/11/2021
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-57281-5_258

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Abstract

Australian drought Drought Sea-level rise SEAWAT Seawater intrusion
Despite the complex interactions between climate and the hydrological systems, recent studies have shown that climate change has a significant impact on the dynamics of the hydrologic systems, which in turn result in hydrological extremes (i.e., flood and droughts). Climate change and the associated hydrologic extremes have significant impacts both on surface and groundwater resources. This study, incorporating two parts – a review and modeling scenarios, evaluated the influence of climate change and associated hydrologic extremes on coastal groundwater dynamics. In the review part, it was noted that the changing climate and the increasing frequency of the hydrologic extremes are direct threats to coastal groundwater sustainability. Further, the simplified conceptual framework–based seawater intrusion model was used to provide a first-order assessment of the dynamics of the seawater-freshwater interface as a result of climate change and a multiyear drought. To do this, seawater intrusion models were constructed using the SEAWAT model based on two scenarios: (1) a 2.1 mm/year sea-level rise and (2) the combined effect of sea-level rise and a multiyear (10 years) drought. For the second scenario, records from the multiyear (2002–2010) Australian drought were used. The model conceptualization assumes steady-state condition, homogeneous and isotropic aquifer properties, and constant recharge (in the first scenario). In the first scenario, the model predicted a 40 m inland migration of the seawater-freshwater interface toe as a result of the 2.1 mm/year sea-level rise for 10 consecutive years, while predictions for the second scenario showed a 720 m inland migration of the interface. The review and modeling scenarios in this chapter bring new insights into the impacts of climate change and hydrological extremes on coastal groundwater that are of relevance to governments, organizations, and researchers with globally distributed interests. Specifically, the impacts of hydrological extremes on coastal groundwater dynamics may be used to evaluate the future of coastal aquifers in areas with frequent drought experiences.

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